Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
